Rising Tide, Shrinking Fleet: The Boiling Frog Theory and the Future of Thai Seafarers

Tankiti Jumpakag

August 01,2024

The Boiling Frog Theory and the Thai Seafarer Dilemma

The "Boiling Frog Theory" is a metaphor often used to illustrate how gradual changes, which may initially seem insignificant, can lead to disastrous outcomes if not addressed. This analogy can be applied to the current situation faced by Thai seafarers, where the number of certified professionals is steadily increasing, while the number of vessels in the international Thai fleet is declining.

The Current State of Thai Seafarers and Vessels

According to data from the Thai Marine Department (Thai merchant fleet data for 2021), the number of Thai vessels has decreased significantly from 482 in 2008 to 372 in 2021. This trend raises concerns, especially when juxtaposed with the increasing number of Thai seafarers obtaining Certificates of Competency (COCs) each year, as reported by the Ministry of Transport's data ().

The Imbalance and Its Implications

The growth in the number of qualified seafarers, coupled with the shrinking fleet, suggests an emerging imbalance in the industry. This scenario points towards a potential oversupply of seafarers in the future. While seasoned seafarers may already feel the effects of this imbalance by experiencing longer periods between assignments and reduced income but the situation is less apparent to current maritime students.

The Challenge for Future Seafarers

Maritime schools and academies continue to enroll new students, preparing them for careers at sea. However, the reality they may face upon graduation could be starkly different from their expectations. The allure of a career progression leading to roles such as Master or Chief Engineer might not be as attainable as it once was, due to the limited availability of vessels.

The Boiling Frog Analogy

The "Boiling Frog Theory" metaphorically captures this situation. Just as a frog placed in gradually heating water fails to perceive the danger until it's too late, many Thai seafarers and maritime students may not fully grasp the gravity of the industry's challenges until they find themselves without opportunities. The incremental reduction in fleet numbers, coupled with a growing pool of qualified professionals, mirrors the slow but dangerous rise in water temperature in the metaphor.

Looking Forward

Addressing this issue requires awareness and proactive measures from all stakeholders, including maritime schools, students, and the government. It is crucial for maritime educational institutions to provide realistic career guidance and for students to be aware of the industry's current and future landscape. Additionally, exploring alternative career paths or diversifying skill sets could be valuable for those entering this field.


The "Boiling Frog Theory" serves as a cautionary tale for the Thai seafaring community. Without timely action, the gradual and unnoticed changes in the industry could lead to an oversupply of qualified professionals, leaving many without job opportunities and undermining the allure of maritime careers.